UNCERTAINTY PLUS UNCERTAINTY

August 25, 2020

For nearly six months now, we've been living with the uncertainty of the Coronavirus. We can't see it or smell it. We don't know where it is but we know that it lives on people. So we stay away from people. 

For the past several days, we've been seeing and smelling the new threat of California wild fire. We know where it is and get frequent updates about it. But it's uncertain how and when it might spread. This depends mostly on the weather: will the wind pick-up? Will it change direction? Will there be more dry lightning? Might it rain? 

Some of us are far enough away to feel pretty safe from the fire. The days are hazy with smoke. The smell of it fills the air. The sun and moon are orange. We've been through this before and we know to keep the windows closed, avoid vigorous outdoor activity, and frequently check the fire maps on the internet. If we're close to an active fire area, we pack our cars with our most important possessions and await for an order to evacuate that might or might not come. 

Most of us like to have some control over our lives. We schedule our activities and stay aware of time as it passes. Meterologists can give us an educated guess about what might happen to the fire. Epidemeologists can give us an educated guess about the spread of the plauge. We never know for sure what's going to happen; that's not new. So I'm taking reasonable precautions, then going on with my normal life as much as possible. But I'm also learning to live with a bigger dose of uncertainty than usual.